Rebounds
40.4%
21-31 · 52 GP
NBA 2025–26
Aaron Nesmith
Indiana Pacers
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Rebounds 40.4% (52 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Threes Made
47.1%
24-27 · 51 GP
Points
48.0%
24-26 · 50 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
35.1%
13-24 · 37 GP
Assists
40.9%
9-13 · 22 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 4.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
40.4%
Record
21-31
Average
4.2
Median
3.0
Games Played
52
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 4.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
9-9
Average
4.6
GP at Line
18
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 5.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 33.3% | — | 12 |
| Rest: 1 | 54.5% | — | 11 |
| vs FAST pace | 50.0% | — | 10 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
47.1%
Record
24-27
Average
2.4
Median
2.0
Games Played
51
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
53.6%
Record
15-13
Average
2.6
GP at Line
28
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 50.0% | — | 18 |
| vs FAST pace | 53.3% | — | 15 |
| Rest: 1 | 46.7% | — | 15 |
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 13.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
48.0%
Record
24-26
Average
14.3
Median
14.0
Games Played
50
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 13.5
Over Rate
44.4%
Record
4-5
Average
12.2
GP at Line
9
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 15.5
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
DraftKings
O/U 13.5
FanDuel
O/U 13.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 60.0% | — | 5 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 21.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
35.1%
Record
13-24
Average
17.8
Median
19.0
Games Played
37
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 21.5
Over Rate
62.5%
Record
5-3
Average
19.6
GP at Line
8
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 21.5
DraftKings
O/U 20.5
DraftKings
O/U 15.5
DraftKings
O/U 19.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 50.0% | — | 6 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
40.9%
Record
9-13
Average
2.1
Median
1.5
Games Played
22
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
52.9%
Record
9-8
Average
2.4
GP at Line
17
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 46.2% | — | 13 |
| Rest: 1 | 55.6% | — | 9 |
| vs MID pace | 37.5% | — | 8 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.