Points
40.4%
19-28 · 47 GP
NBA 2025–26
Aaron Wiggins
Oklahoma City Thunder
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 40.4% (47 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Threes Made
40.5%
17-25 · 42 GP
Rebounds
50.0%
21-21 · 42 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
41.7%
10-14 · 24 GP
Assists
44.4%
8-10 · 18 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 15.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
40.4%
Record
19-28
Average
10.3
Median
10.0
Games Played
47
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 15.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
4-4
Average
15.1
GP at Line
8
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 15.5
DraftKings
O/U 12.5
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
DraftKings
O/U 13.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 20.0% | — | 5 |
| vs FAST pace | 40.0% | — | 5 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
40.5%
Record
17-25
Average
1.7
Median
1.0
Games Played
42
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
34.6%
Record
9-17
Average
1.4
GP at Line
26
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
FanDuel
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 37.5% | — | 16 |
| AWAY | 40.0% | — | 15 |
| Rest: 1 | 23.1% | — | 13 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
21-21
Average
3.7
Median
3.5
Games Played
42
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
57.9%
Record
11-8
Average
4.0
GP at Line
19
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 61.5% | — | 13 |
| AWAY | 66.7% | — | 12 |
| vs FAST pace | 54.5% | — | 11 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 21.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
41.7%
Record
10-14
Average
15.6
Median
17.0
Games Played
24
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 21.5
Over Rate
40.0%
Record
2-3
Average
12.6
GP at Line
5
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 18.5
DraftKings
O/U 21.5
DraftKings
O/U 22.5
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
44.4%
Record
8-10
Average
2.1
Median
2.0
Games Played
18
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
42.9%
Record
6-8
Average
2.3
GP at Line
14
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 44.4% | — | 9 |
| Rest: 1 | 55.6% | — | 9 |
| HOME | 28.6% | — | 7 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.