Points
56.0%
28-22 · 50 GP
NBA 2025–26
Ajay Mitchell
Oklahoma City Thunder
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 56.0% (50 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Assists
41.7%
20-28 · 48 GP
Rebounds
38.3%
18-29 · 47 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
47.8%
22-24 · 46 GP
Threes Made
39.5%
15-23 · 38 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 13.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
56.0%
Record
28-22
Average
13.7
Median
14.0
Games Played
50
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 13.5
Over Rate
72.7%
Record
8-3
Average
13.9
GP at Line
11
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
DraftKings
O/U 13.5
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
DraftKings
O/U 16.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 75.0% | — | 8 |
| MID season | 60.0% | — | 5 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
41.7%
Record
20-28
Average
3.6
Median
3.0
Games Played
48
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
34.4%
Record
11-21
Average
3.6
GP at Line
32
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 31.6% | — | 19 |
| Rest: 1 | 53.3% | — | 15 |
| vs FAST pace | 50.0% | — | 14 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
38.3%
Record
18-29
Average
3.2
Median
3.0
Games Played
47
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
37.1%
Record
13-22
Average
3.1
GP at Line
35
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 31.6% | — | 19 |
| AWAY | 52.6% | — | 19 |
| Rest: 1 | 41.2% | — | 17 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 20.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
47.8%
Record
22-24
Average
20.2
Median
20.0
Games Played
46
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 20.5
Over Rate
33.3%
Record
3-6
Average
19.1
GP at Line
9
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 21.5
DraftKings
O/U 20.5
DraftKings
O/U 22.5
DraftKings
O/U 17.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 28.6% | — | 7 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
39.5%
Record
15-23
Average
1.1
Median
1.0
Games Played
38
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
37.0%
Record
10-17
Average
1.1
GP at Line
27
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
FanDuel
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 37.5% | — | 16 |
| EARLY season | 50.0% | — | 16 |
| vs FAST pace | 42.9% | — | 14 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.