Points
26.5%
9-25 · 34 GP
NBA 2025–26
Alex Caruso
Oklahoma City Thunder
Points 26.5% Under (34 GP) · 5 qualified cards · 2 strong signals
Threes Made
34.8%
8-15 · 23 GP
Rebounds
40.0%
12-18 · 30 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
38.1%
8-13 · 21 GP
Assists
45.0%
9-11 · 20 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 6.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
feature
Over Rate
26.5%
Record
9-25
Average
5.2
Median
4.5
Games Played
34
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 6.5
Over Rate
46.2%
Record
6-7
Average
7.3
GP at Line
13
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
FanDuel
O/U 5.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 28.6% | — | 7 |
| vs FAST pace | 83.3% | — | 6 |
| HOME | 66.7% | — | 6 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
edge
Over Rate
34.8%
Record
8-15
Average
0.8
Median
1.0
Games Played
23
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
21.4%
Record
3-11
Average
0.8
GP at Line
14
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| EARLY season | 33.3% | — | 9 |
| HOME | 37.5% | — | 8 |
| vs FAST pace | 42.9% | — | 7 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
40.0%
Record
12-18
Average
2.9
Median
2.0
Games Played
30
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
45.8%
Record
11-13
Average
2.9
GP at Line
24
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 53.3% | — | 15 |
| Rest: 1 | 38.5% | — | 13 |
| vs FAST pace | 41.7% | — | 12 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 11.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
38.1%
Record
8-13
Average
9.9
Median
10.0
Games Played
21
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 11.5
Over Rate
25.0%
Record
2-6
Average
9.3
GP at Line
8
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
DraftKings
O/U 12.5
DraftKings
O/U 10.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 16.7% | — | 6 |
| vs FAST pace | 33.3% | — | 6 |
| Rest: 1 | 20.0% | — | 5 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
45.0%
Record
9-11
Average
2.0
Median
2.0
Games Played
20
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
35.3%
Record
6-11
Average
1.8
GP at Line
17
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 25.0% | — | 12 |
| Rest: 1 | 36.4% | — | 11 |
| AWAY | 11.1% | — | 9 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.