Points
62.5%
25-15 · 40 GP
NBA 2025–26
Darius Garland
Cleveland Cavaliers
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 62.5% (40 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Threes Made
60.5%
23-15 · 38 GP
Assists
55.3%
21-17 · 38 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
59.5%
22-15 · 37 GP
Rebounds
43.2%
16-21 · 37 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 17.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
62.5%
Record
25-15
Average
19.8
Median
20.0
Games Played
40
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 17.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
5-5
Average
17.2
GP at Line
10
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 17.5
DraftKings
O/U 18.5
DraftKings
O/U 16.5
DraftKings
O/U 20.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| MID season | 50.0% | — | 8 |
| Rest: 1 | 42.9% | — | 7 |
| AWAY | 42.9% | — | 7 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
60.5%
Record
23-15
Average
3.0
Median
3.0
Games Played
38
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
53.6%
Record
15-13
Average
3.0
GP at Line
28
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 66.7% | — | 15 |
| MID season | 33.3% | — | 15 |
| vs FAST pace | 35.7% | — | 14 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 6.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
55.3%
Record
21-17
Average
6.8
Median
6.5
Games Played
38
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 6.5
Over Rate
52.0%
Record
13-12
Average
7.1
GP at Line
25
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 50.0% | — | 14 |
| MID season | 46.2% | — | 13 |
| Rest: 1 | 46.2% | — | 13 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 27.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
59.5%
Record
22-15
Average
28.8
Median
30.0
Games Played
37
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 27.5
Over Rate
37.5%
Record
3-5
Average
25.4
GP at Line
8
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 27.5
DraftKings
O/U 26.5
DraftKings
O/U 28.5
DraftKings
O/U 23.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 42.9% | — | 7 |
| AWAY | 33.3% | — | 6 |
| MID season | 33.3% | — | 6 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
43.2%
Record
16-21
Average
2.6
Median
2.0
Games Played
37
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
42.4%
Record
14-19
Average
2.6
GP at Line
33
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 29.4% | — | 17 |
| Rest: 1 | 25.0% | — | 16 |
| AWAY | 56.3% | — | 16 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.