Points
48.8%
40-42 · 82 GP
NBA 2025–26
DeMar DeRozan
Sacramento Kings
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 48.8% (82 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Pts+Reb+Ast
46.8%
37-42 · 79 GP
Assists
51.9%
41-38 · 79 GP
Rebounds
46.2%
36-42 · 78 GP
Threes Made
52.5%
21-19 · 40 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 18.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
48.8%
Record
40-42
Average
18.7
Median
17.5
Games Played
82
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 18.5
Over Rate
52.9%
Record
9-8
Average
17.6
GP at Line
17
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 19.5
DraftKings
O/U 18.5
DraftKings
O/U 17.5
DraftKings
O/U 20.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 58.3% | — | 12 |
| vs FAST pace | 66.7% | — | 9 |
| Rest: 1 | 75.0% | — | 8 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 25.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
46.8%
Record
37-42
Average
25.7
Median
24.0
Games Played
79
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 25.5
Over Rate
46.2%
Record
6-7
Average
26.8
GP at Line
13
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 25.5
DraftKings
O/U 27.5
DraftKings
O/U 26.5
DraftKings
O/U 29.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 57.1% | — | 7 |
| HOME | 33.3% | — | 6 |
| MID season | 50.0% | — | 6 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
51.9%
Record
41-38
Average
4.2
Median
4.0
Games Played
79
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
51.0%
Record
26-25
Average
4.0
GP at Line
51
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 46.4% | — | 28 |
| vs FAST pace | 53.8% | — | 26 |
| AWAY | 53.8% | — | 26 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
46.2%
Record
36-42
Average
2.9
Median
3.0
Games Played
78
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
42.5%
Record
17-23
Average
3.2
GP at Line
40
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 34.8% | — | 23 |
| HOME | 31.8% | — | 22 |
| vs FAST pace | 40.0% | — | 20 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 0.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
52.5%
Record
21-19
Average
0.9
Median
1.0
Games Played
40
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 0.5
Over Rate
54.1%
Record
20-17
Average
0.9
GP at Line
37
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 47.8% | — | 23 |
| vs FAST pace | 55.0% | — | 20 |
| HOME | 52.6% | — | 19 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.