Points
20.0%
3-12 · 15 GP
NBA 2025–26
Dorian Finney-Smith
Houston Rockets
Points 20.0% Under (15 GP) · 2 qualified cards · 1 strong signal
Rebounds
45.5%
5-6 · 11 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
edge
Over Rate
20.0%
Record
3-12
Average
3.1
Median
3.0
Games Played
15
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
0.0%
Record
0-6
Average
2.3
GP at Line
6
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
display
Over Rate
45.5%
Record
5-6
Average
2.5
Median
3.0
Games Played
11
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
55.6%
Record
5-4
Average
2.4
GP at Line
9
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 50.0% | — | 6 |
| HOME | 80.0% | — | 5 |
| vs FAST pace | 60.0% | — | 5 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.