Points
54.4%
43-36 · 79 GP
NBA 2025–26
Jaden McDaniels
Minnesota Timberwolves
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 54.4% (79 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Rebounds
42.3%
33-45 · 78 GP
Threes Made
43.6%
34-44 · 78 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
59.5%
44-30 · 74 GP
Assists
50.0%
35-35 · 70 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 14.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
54.4%
Record
43-36
Average
14.7
Median
16.0
Games Played
79
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 14.5
Over Rate
61.5%
Record
16-10
Average
13.8
GP at Line
26
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
DraftKings
O/U 13.5
DraftKings
O/U 12.5
FanDuel
O/U 14.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 64.3% | — | 14 |
| HOME | 64.3% | — | 14 |
| vs FAST pace | 64.3% | — | 14 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 4.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
42.3%
Record
33-45
Average
4.3
Median
4.0
Games Played
78
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 4.5
Over Rate
47.5%
Record
28-31
Average
4.5
GP at Line
59
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
FanDuel
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 37.1% | — | 35 |
| Rest: 1 | 44.1% | — | 34 |
| vs FAST pace | 54.8% | — | 31 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
43.6%
Record
34-44
Average
1.4
Median
1.0
Games Played
78
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
40.3%
Record
27-40
Average
1.4
GP at Line
67
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
FanDuel
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 37.8% | — | 37 |
| Rest: 1 | 43.2% | — | 37 |
| vs FAST pace | 36.1% | — | 36 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 21.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
59.5%
Record
44-30
Average
21.9
Median
24.0
Games Played
74
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 21.5
Over Rate
64.0%
Record
16-9
Average
22.6
GP at Line
25
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 21.5
DraftKings
O/U 20.5
DraftKings
O/U 22.5
DraftKings
O/U 19.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 68.8% | — | 16 |
| vs FAST pace | 76.9% | — | 13 |
| AWAY | 69.2% | — | 13 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
35-35
Average
2.8
Median
3.0
Games Played
70
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
55.4%
Record
31-25
Average
2.8
GP at Line
56
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 37.5% | — | 32 |
| vs FAST pace | 54.8% | — | 31 |
| HOME | 54.8% | — | 31 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.