Points
42.6%
29-39 · 68 GP
NBA 2025–26
Jamal Shead
Toronto Raptors
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 42.6% (68 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Assists
49.3%
33-34 · 67 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
35.1%
13-24 · 37 GP
Threes Made
48.6%
18-19 · 37 GP
Rebounds
46.7%
14-16 · 30 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 6.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
42.6%
Record
29-39
Average
6.4
Median
6.0
Games Played
68
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 6.5
Over Rate
38.5%
Record
10-16
Average
6.0
GP at Line
26
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 37.5% | — | 16 |
| vs FAST pace | 35.7% | — | 14 |
| vs MID pace | 41.7% | — | 12 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 4.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
49.3%
Record
33-34
Average
5.2
Median
5.0
Games Played
67
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 4.5
Over Rate
48.0%
Record
12-13
Average
4.7
GP at Line
25
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 26.7% | — | 15 |
| vs MID pace | 46.2% | — | 13 |
| AWAY | 80.0% | — | 10 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 13.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
35.1%
Record
13-24
Average
14.6
Median
12.0
Games Played
37
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 13.5
Over Rate
22.2%
Record
2-7
Average
12.1
GP at Line
9
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 13.5
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
DraftKings
O/U 12.5
DraftKings
O/U 15.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 16.7% | — | 6 |
| vs FAST pace | 20.0% | — | 5 |
| Rest: 1 | 20.0% | — | 5 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
48.6%
Record
18-19
Average
1.3
Median
1.0
Games Played
37
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
56.5%
Record
13-10
Average
1.6
GP at Line
23
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
FanDuel
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| MID season | 56.3% | — | 16 |
| AWAY | 58.3% | — | 12 |
| HOME | 54.5% | — | 11 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
46.7%
Record
14-16
Average
2.3
Median
2.0
Games Played
30
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
41.2%
Record
7-10
Average
2.3
GP at Line
17
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 27.3% | — | 11 |
| MID season | 54.5% | — | 11 |
| Rest: 1 | 44.4% | — | 9 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.