Points
41.3%
19-27 · 46 GP
NBA 2025–26
Jose Alvarado
New Orleans Pelicans
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 41.3% (46 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Assists
47.5%
19-21 · 40 GP
Threes Made
43.6%
17-22 · 39 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
48.3%
14-15 · 29 GP
Rebounds
48.3%
14-15 · 29 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 6.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
41.3%
Record
19-27
Average
7.6
Median
7.0
Games Played
46
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 6.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
6-6
Average
5.7
GP at Line
12
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 55.6% | — | 9 |
| vs FAST pace | 71.4% | — | 7 |
| MID season | 50.0% | — | 6 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
47.5%
Record
19-21
Average
3.9
Median
3.0
Games Played
40
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
30.0%
Record
6-14
Average
3.0
GP at Line
20
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 18.2% | — | 11 |
| Rest: 1 | 27.3% | — | 11 |
| EARLY season | 30.0% | — | 10 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
43.6%
Record
17-22
Average
1.5
Median
1.0
Games Played
39
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
16-16
Average
1.8
GP at Line
32
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 55.0% | — | 20 |
| vs FAST pace | 52.9% | — | 17 |
| Rest: 1 | 52.9% | — | 17 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 12.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
48.3%
Record
14-15
Average
14.5
Median
15.0
Games Played
29
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 12.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
4-4
Average
12.6
GP at Line
8
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 12.5
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
DraftKings
O/U 16.5
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 20.0% | — | 5 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
48.3%
Record
14-15
Average
2.7
Median
2.0
Games Played
29
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
52.0%
Record
13-12
Average
3.0
GP at Line
25
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 50.0% | — | 14 |
| Rest: 1 | 61.5% | — | 13 |
| vs FAST pace | 46.2% | — | 13 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.