Points
63.2%
12-7 · 19 GP
NBA 2025–26
Julian Strawther
Denver Nuggets
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 63.2% (19 GP) · 3 qualified cards · No strong signal
Threes Made
35.7%
5-9 · 14 GP
Rebounds
46.2%
6-7 · 13 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
63.2%
Record
12-7
Average
11.8
Median
12.0
Games Played
19
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 9.5
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
display
Over Rate
35.7%
Record
5-9
Average
1.5
Median
1.0
Games Played
14
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
5-5
Average
1.8
GP at Line
10
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| LATE season | 57.1% | — | 7 |
| HOME | 50.0% | — | 6 |
| vs FAST pace | 50.0% | — | 6 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
display
Over Rate
46.2%
Record
6-7
Average
3.1
Median
3.0
Games Played
13
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
37.5%
Record
3-5
Average
2.3
GP at Line
8
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 60.0% | — | 5 |
| vs MID pace | 40.0% | — | 5 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.