Points
52.4%
43-39 · 82 GP
NBA 2025–26
Keldon Johnson
San Antonio Spurs
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 52.4% (82 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Rebounds
56.8%
46-35 · 81 GP
Threes Made
37.9%
22-36 · 58 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
61.3%
19-12 · 31 GP
Assists
52.6%
10-9 · 19 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 11.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
52.4%
Record
43-39
Average
13.1
Median
12.0
Games Played
82
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 11.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
11-11
Average
13.0
GP at Line
22
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
DraftKings
O/U 12.5
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
DraftKings
O/U 13.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 46.2% | — | 13 |
| HOME | 41.7% | — | 12 |
| AWAY | 60.0% | — | 10 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 4.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
56.8%
Record
46-35
Average
5.2
Median
6.0
Games Played
81
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 4.5
Over Rate
54.1%
Record
20-17
Average
4.9
GP at Line
37
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 55.0% | — | 20 |
| Rest: 1 | 63.2% | — | 19 |
| vs FAST pace | 44.4% | — | 18 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
37.9%
Record
22-36
Average
1.1
Median
1.0
Games Played
58
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
38.9%
Record
14-22
Average
1.3
GP at Line
36
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
FanDuel
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 36.8% | — | 19 |
| vs FAST pace | 33.3% | — | 18 |
| HOME | 41.2% | — | 17 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 17.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
61.3%
Record
19-12
Average
20.5
Median
20.0
Games Played
31
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 17.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
3-3
Average
17.0
GP at Line
6
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 17.5
DraftKings
O/U 19.5
DraftKings
O/U 20.5
DraftKings
O/U 16.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 40.0% | — | 5 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
52.6%
Record
10-9
Average
1.9
Median
2.0
Games Played
19
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
53.8%
Record
7-6
Average
1.8
GP at Line
13
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 66.7% | — | 9 |
| HOME | 50.0% | — | 8 |
| vs FAST pace | 42.9% | — | 7 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.