Threes Made
25.9%
7-20 · 27 GP
NBA 2025–26
Keon Ellis
Sacramento Kings
Threes Made 25.9% Under (27 GP) · 3 qualified cards · 2 strong signals
Rebounds
31.3%
5-11 · 16 GP
Points
45.7%
16-19 · 35 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
edge
Over Rate
25.9%
Record
7-20
Average
1.4
Median
1.0
Games Played
27
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
27.3%
Record
6-16
Average
1.3
GP at Line
22
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| EARLY season | 23.1% | — | 13 |
| HOME | 25.0% | — | 12 |
| AWAY | 30.0% | — | 10 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
edge
Over Rate
31.3%
Record
5-11
Average
2.1
Median
2.0
Games Played
16
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
18.2%
Record
2-9
Average
1.6
GP at Line
11
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 14.3% | — | 7 |
| vs FAST pace | 0.0% | — | 5 |
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 6.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
45.7%
Record
16-19
Average
7.4
Median
6.0
Games Played
35
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 6.5
Over Rate
69.2%
Record
9-4
Average
7.5
GP at Line
13
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 75.0% | — | 8 |
| EARLY season | 50.0% | — | 8 |
| Rest: 1 | 50.0% | — | 6 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.