Points
40.8%
31-45 · 76 GP
NBA 2025–26
LaMelo Ball
Charlotte Hornets
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 40.8% (76 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Threes Made
46.7%
35-40 · 75 GP
Assists
50.7%
38-37 · 75 GP
Rebounds
48.6%
36-38 · 74 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
41.1%
30-43 · 73 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 19.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
40.8%
Record
31-45
Average
19.7
Median
20.0
Games Played
76
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 19.5
Over Rate
52.9%
Record
9-8
Average
19.2
GP at Line
17
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 19.5
DraftKings
O/U 20.5
FanDuel
O/U 17.5
DraftKings
O/U 21.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 58.3% | — | 12 |
| Rest: 1 | 54.5% | — | 11 |
| AWAY | 50.0% | — | 10 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
46.7%
Record
35-40
Average
3.6
Median
4.0
Games Played
75
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
52.5%
Record
21-19
Average
3.6
GP at Line
40
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 45.8% | — | 24 |
| Rest: 1 | 43.5% | — | 23 |
| vs FAST pace | 42.9% | — | 21 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 7.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
50.7%
Record
38-37
Average
7.0
Median
7.0
Games Played
75
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 7.5
Over Rate
52.6%
Record
20-18
Average
7.3
GP at Line
38
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
FanDuel
O/U 6.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
FanDuel
O/U 7.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 47.8% | — | 23 |
| Rest: 1 | 54.5% | — | 22 |
| AWAY | 52.6% | — | 19 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 4.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
48.6%
Record
36-38
Average
4.8
Median
5.0
Games Played
74
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 4.5
Over Rate
54.5%
Record
24-20
Average
4.8
GP at Line
44
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
FanDuel
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 60.9% | — | 23 |
| vs FAST pace | 47.8% | — | 23 |
| AWAY | 47.6% | — | 21 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 32.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
41.1%
Record
30-43
Average
31.2
Median
31.0
Games Played
73
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 32.5
Over Rate
54.5%
Record
6-5
Average
33.6
GP at Line
11
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 31.5
DraftKings
O/U 32.5
DraftKings
O/U 33.5
DraftKings
O/U 34.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 57.1% | — | 7 |
| Rest: 1 | 40.0% | — | 5 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.