Points
25.0%
7-21 · 28 GP
NBA 2025–26
Lonzo Ball
Cleveland Cavaliers
Points 25.0% Under (28 GP) · 5 qualified cards · 1 strong signal
Assists
46.4%
13-15 · 28 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
38.5%
10-16 · 26 GP
Rebounds
57.7%
15-11 · 26 GP
Threes Made
37.5%
9-15 · 24 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 6.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
edge
Over Rate
25.0%
Record
7-21
Average
4.7
Median
3.0
Games Played
28
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 6.5
Over Rate
40.0%
Record
4-6
Average
5.6
GP at Line
10
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 42.9% | — | 7 |
| Rest: 1 | 66.7% | — | 6 |
| HOME | 50.0% | — | 6 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 4.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
46.4%
Record
13-15
Average
4.2
Median
4.5
Games Played
28
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 4.5
Over Rate
46.2%
Record
6-7
Average
4.2
GP at Line
13
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 40.0% | — | 10 |
| Rest: 1 | 60.0% | — | 10 |
| HOME | 44.4% | — | 9 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 15.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
38.5%
Record
10-16
Average
13.1
Median
12.5
Games Played
26
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 15.5
Over Rate
33.3%
Record
3-6
Average
13.3
GP at Line
9
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 15.5
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
DraftKings
O/U 13.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 42.9% | — | 7 |
| HOME | 42.9% | — | 7 |
| Rest: 1 | 42.9% | — | 7 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
57.7%
Record
15-11
Average
4.2
Median
4.0
Games Played
26
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
61.1%
Record
11-7
Average
4.3
GP at Line
18
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| EARLY season | 71.4% | — | 14 |
| Rest: 1 | 61.5% | — | 13 |
| vs FAST pace | 81.8% | — | 11 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
37.5%
Record
9-15
Average
1.3
Median
1.0
Games Played
24
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
34.8%
Record
8-15
Average
1.1
GP at Line
23
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 43.8% | — | 16 |
| Rest: 1 | 40.0% | — | 15 |
| EARLY season | 46.7% | — | 15 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.