Points
49.3%
35-36 · 71 GP
NBA 2025–26
Marcus Smart
Los Angeles Lakers
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 49.3% (71 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Threes Made
43.8%
28-36 · 64 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
45.0%
27-33 · 60 GP
Assists
46.7%
28-32 · 60 GP
Rebounds
52.5%
31-28 · 59 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 8.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
49.3%
Record
35-36
Average
9.6
Median
9.0
Games Played
71
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 8.5
Over Rate
58.8%
Record
10-7
Average
10.3
GP at Line
17
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 9.5
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
FanDuel
O/U 8.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 63.6% | — | 11 |
| Rest: 1 | 57.1% | — | 7 |
| vs MID pace | 33.3% | — | 6 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
43.8%
Record
28-36
Average
1.6
Median
1.0
Games Played
64
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
41.2%
Record
21-30
Average
1.7
GP at Line
51
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
FanDuel
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 39.3% | — | 28 |
| Rest: 1 | 30.8% | — | 26 |
| vs FAST pace | 38.5% | — | 26 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 15.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
45.0%
Record
27-33
Average
14.7
Median
15.0
Games Played
60
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 15.5
Over Rate
46.7%
Record
7-8
Average
15.0
GP at Line
15
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 12.5
DraftKings
O/U 15.5
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
FanDuel
O/U 15.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 46.2% | — | 13 |
| AWAY | 27.3% | — | 11 |
| vs FAST pace | 36.4% | — | 11 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
46.7%
Record
28-32
Average
2.8
Median
3.0
Games Played
60
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
53.3%
Record
16-14
Average
2.4
GP at Line
30
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 52.6% | — | 19 |
| AWAY | 52.6% | — | 19 |
| vs MID pace | 46.2% | — | 13 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
52.5%
Record
31-28
Average
2.9
Median
3.0
Games Played
59
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
54.3%
Record
25-21
Average
2.5
GP at Line
46
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 50.0% | — | 30 |
| AWAY | 40.7% | — | 27 |
| HOME | 73.7% | — | 19 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.