Points
45.9%
17-20 · 37 GP
NBA 2025–26
Marvin Bagley III
Washington Wizards
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 45.9% (37 GP) · 3 qualified cards · No strong signal
Rebounds
47.2%
17-19 · 36 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
50.0%
5-5 · 10 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 9.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
45.9%
Record
17-20
Average
10.4
Median
9.0
Games Played
37
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 9.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
3-3
Average
10.8
GP at Line
6
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 10.5
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
DraftKings
O/U 9.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 60.0% | — | 5 |
| vs MID pace | 60.0% | — | 5 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 7.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
47.2%
Record
17-19
Average
6.3
Median
6.0
Games Played
36
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 7.5
Over Rate
36.4%
Record
4-7
Average
7.3
GP at Line
11
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 25.0% | — | 8 |
| AWAY | 50.0% | — | 8 |
| vs FAST pace | 40.0% | — | 5 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
display
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
5-5
Average
21.7
Median
20.5
Games Played
10
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.