Points
33.3%
11-22 · 33 GP
NBA 2025–26
Mike Conley
Minnesota Timberwolves
Points 33.3% Under (33 GP) · 5 qualified cards · 2 strong signals
Assists
32.3%
10-21 · 31 GP
Threes Made
40.9%
9-13 · 22 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
30.8%
4-9 · 13 GP
Rebounds
36.4%
4-7 · 11 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 5.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
feature
Over Rate
33.3%
Record
11-22
Average
4.5
Median
5.0
Games Played
33
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 5.5
Over Rate
27.3%
Record
3-8
Average
4.4
GP at Line
11
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| EARLY season | 28.6% | — | 7 |
| AWAY | 42.9% | — | 7 |
| vs FAST pace | 20.0% | — | 5 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
feature
Over Rate
32.3%
Record
10-21
Average
3.0
Median
2.0
Games Played
31
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
30.8%
Record
4-9
Average
2.4
GP at Line
13
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 36.4% | — | 11 |
| MID season | 36.4% | — | 11 |
| Rest: 1 | 37.5% | — | 8 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
40.9%
Record
9-13
Average
1.1
Median
1.0
Games Played
22
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
31.3%
Record
5-11
Average
1.1
GP at Line
16
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| EARLY season | 36.4% | — | 11 |
| AWAY | 33.3% | — | 9 |
| vs FAST pace | 25.0% | — | 8 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
display
Over Rate
30.8%
Record
4-9
Average
10.5
Median
8.0
Games Played
13
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 16.5
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
display
Over Rate
36.4%
Record
4-7
Average
1.8
Median
2.0
Games Played
11
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
37.5%
Record
3-5
Average
2.1
GP at Line
8
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 33.3% | — | 6 |
| AWAY | 40.0% | — | 5 |
| EARLY season | 60.0% | — | 5 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.