Points
40.6%
28-41 · 69 GP
NBA 2025–26
Nikola Jokic
Denver Nuggets
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 40.6% (69 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Assists
53.6%
37-32 · 69 GP
Rebounds
49.3%
34-35 · 69 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
47.1%
32-36 · 68 GP
Threes Made
48.5%
33-35 · 68 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 28.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
40.6%
Record
28-41
Average
26.9
Median
26.0
Games Played
69
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 28.5
Over Rate
53.8%
Record
7-6
Average
29.5
GP at Line
13
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 29.5
DraftKings
O/U 28.5
DraftKings
O/U 27.5
DraftKings
O/U 24.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 54.5% | — | 11 |
| vs FAST pace | 62.5% | — | 8 |
| Rest: 1 | 60.0% | — | 5 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 10.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
53.6%
Record
37-32
Average
10.6
Median
10.0
Games Played
69
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 10.5
Over Rate
55.9%
Record
19-15
Average
11.1
GP at Line
34
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 10.5
DraftKings
O/U 9.5
FanDuel
O/U 9.5
FanDuel
O/U 10.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 55.6% | — | 18 |
| Rest: 1 | 64.7% | — | 17 |
| HOME | 56.3% | — | 16 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 12.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
49.3%
Record
34-35
Average
12.6
Median
13.0
Games Played
69
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 12.5
Over Rate
45.7%
Record
21-25
Average
12.6
GP at Line
46
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 12.5
FanDuel
O/U 12.5
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
DraftKings
O/U 13.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 44.0% | — | 25 |
| AWAY | 47.6% | — | 21 |
| vs FAST pace | 40.0% | — | 20 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 50.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
47.1%
Record
32-36
Average
50.2
Median
50.5
Games Played
68
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 50.5
Over Rate
66.7%
Record
8-4
Average
53.3
GP at Line
12
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
O/U 49.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 85.7% | — | 7 |
| AWAY | 83.3% | — | 6 |
| HOME | 50.0% | — | 6 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
48.5%
Record
33-35
Average
1.6
Median
1.0
Games Played
68
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
31-31
Average
1.7
GP at Line
62
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
FanDuel
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 65.6% | — | 32 |
| HOME | 33.3% | — | 30 |
| Rest: 1 | 42.9% | — | 28 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.