Points
26.7%
8-22 · 30 GP
NBA 2025–26
Nikola Jovic
Miami Heat
Points 26.7% Under (30 GP) · 5 qualified cards · 3 strong signals
Threes Made
26.9%
7-19 · 26 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
29.2%
7-17 · 24 GP
Rebounds
48.1%
13-14 · 27 GP
Assists
45.8%
11-13 · 24 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 8.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
feature
Over Rate
26.7%
Record
8-22
Average
8.1
Median
5.5
Games Played
30
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 8.5
Over Rate
28.6%
Record
2-5
Average
7.9
GP at Line
7
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
DraftKings
O/U 9.5
DraftKings
O/U 10.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 16.7% | — | 6 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
edge
Over Rate
26.9%
Record
7-19
Average
0.9
Median
1.0
Games Played
26
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
23.8%
Record
5-16
Average
1.0
GP at Line
21
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 12.5% | — | 16 |
| EARLY season | 30.8% | — | 13 |
| HOME | 25.0% | — | 12 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
edge
Over Rate
29.2%
Record
7-17
Average
15.0
Median
13.0
Games Played
24
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 16.5
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
DraftKings
O/U 15.5
DraftKings
O/U 17.5
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
48.1%
Record
13-14
Average
4.0
Median
4.0
Games Played
27
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
53.8%
Record
7-6
Average
3.8
GP at Line
13
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 50.0% | — | 10 |
| vs MID pace | 71.4% | — | 7 |
| AWAY | 57.1% | — | 7 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
45.8%
Record
11-13
Average
2.6
Median
2.5
Games Played
24
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
8-8
Average
2.6
GP at Line
16
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 50.0% | — | 12 |
| vs FAST pace | 27.3% | — | 11 |
| AWAY | 44.4% | — | 9 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.