Points
53.6%
37-32 · 69 GP
NBA 2025–26
Pelle Larsson
Miami Heat
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 53.6% (69 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Assists
56.1%
37-29 · 66 GP
Rebounds
49.2%
32-33 · 65 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
62.5%
40-24 · 64 GP
Threes Made
36.4%
16-28 · 44 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 9.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
53.6%
Record
37-32
Average
12.2
Median
11.0
Games Played
69
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 9.5
Over Rate
75.0%
Record
12-4
Average
12.6
GP at Line
16
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 9.5
DraftKings
O/U 10.5
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
FanDuel
O/U 11.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 70.0% | — | 10 |
| vs FAST pace | 70.0% | — | 10 |
| EARLY season | 71.4% | — | 7 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
56.1%
Record
37-29
Average
3.8
Median
3.0
Games Played
66
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
60.6%
Record
20-13
Average
4.2
GP at Line
33
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 76.5% | — | 17 |
| vs FAST pace | 64.7% | — | 17 |
| AWAY | 43.8% | — | 16 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
49.2%
Record
32-33
Average
3.8
Median
4.0
Games Played
65
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
19-19
Average
3.6
GP at Line
38
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 60.9% | — | 23 |
| vs FAST pace | 66.7% | — | 21 |
| Rest: 1 | 31.3% | — | 16 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 15.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
62.5%
Record
40-24
Average
19.6
Median
19.0
Games Played
64
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 15.5
Over Rate
91.7%
Record
11-1
Average
22.0
GP at Line
12
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 15.5
DraftKings
O/U 17.5
DraftKings
O/U 16.5
DraftKings
O/U 18.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 85.7% | — | 7 |
| vs FAST pace | 100.0% | — | 6 |
| EARLY season | 100.0% | — | 5 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
36.4%
Record
16-28
Average
1.0
Median
1.0
Games Played
44
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
41.7%
Record
10-14
Average
1.4
GP at Line
24
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
FanDuel
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 47.1% | — | 17 |
| HOME | 40.0% | — | 15 |
| vs FAST pace | 57.1% | — | 14 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.