Threes Made
30.6%
11-25 · 36 GP
NBA 2025–26
Peyton Watson
Denver Nuggets
Threes Made 30.6% Under (36 GP) · 5 qualified cards · 1 strong signal
Rebounds
38.3%
18-29 · 47 GP
Points
52.2%
24-22 · 46 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
42.9%
12-16 · 28 GP
Assists
48.0%
12-13 · 25 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
UNDER LEAN
feature
Over Rate
30.6%
Record
11-25
Average
1.9
Median
1.0
Games Played
36
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
23.1%
Record
6-20
Average
1.5
GP at Line
26
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
FanDuel
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| MID season | 21.1% | — | 19 |
| vs FAST pace | 14.3% | — | 14 |
| AWAY | 21.4% | — | 14 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 5.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
38.3%
Record
18-29
Average
4.8
Median
5.0
Games Played
47
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 5.5
Over Rate
28.6%
Record
6-15
Average
4.4
GP at Line
21
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| MID season | 23.5% | — | 17 |
| vs MID pace | 18.2% | — | 11 |
| HOME | 18.2% | — | 11 |
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 12.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
52.2%
Record
24-22
Average
16.1
Median
15.0
Games Played
46
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 12.5
Over Rate
41.7%
Record
5-7
Average
13.3
GP at Line
12
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 12.5
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
DraftKings
O/U 9.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| MID season | 25.0% | — | 8 |
| AWAY | 28.6% | — | 7 |
| Rest: 1 | 28.6% | — | 7 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 19.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
42.9%
Record
12-16
Average
23.6
Median
22.5
Games Played
28
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 19.5
Over Rate
42.9%
Record
3-4
Average
17.4
GP at Line
7
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 19.5
DraftKings
O/U 20.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| MID season | 33.3% | — | 6 |
| Rest: 1 | 60.0% | — | 5 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
48.0%
Record
12-13
Average
1.9
Median
2.0
Games Played
25
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
60.0%
Record
9-6
Average
1.7
GP at Line
15
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 66.7% | — | 9 |
| Rest: 1 | 50.0% | — | 8 |
| MID season | 50.0% | — | 8 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.