Points
56.0%
28-22 · 50 GP
NBA 2025–26
Sam Merrill
Cleveland Cavaliers
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 56.0% (50 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Threes Made
51.0%
25-24 · 49 GP
Rebounds
42.5%
17-23 · 40 GP
Assists
43.3%
13-17 · 30 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
50.0%
15-15 · 30 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 10.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
56.0%
Record
28-22
Average
12.6
Median
13.0
Games Played
50
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 10.5
Over Rate
62.5%
Record
10-6
Average
13.6
GP at Line
16
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 10.5
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
DraftKings
O/U 9.5
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 66.7% | — | 12 |
| HOME | 63.6% | — | 11 |
| Rest: 1 | 66.7% | — | 9 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
51.0%
Record
25-24
Average
3.0
Median
3.0
Games Played
49
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
61.1%
Record
22-14
Average
3.1
GP at Line
36
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 61.9% | — | 21 |
| Rest: 1 | 57.1% | — | 21 |
| vs FAST pace | 60.0% | — | 15 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
42.5%
Record
17-23
Average
2.6
Median
2.0
Games Played
40
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
42.4%
Record
14-19
Average
2.5
GP at Line
33
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 38.1% | — | 21 |
| AWAY | 45.0% | — | 20 |
| vs FAST pace | 43.8% | — | 16 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
43.3%
Record
13-17
Average
2.3
Median
2.0
Games Played
30
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
38.1%
Record
8-13
Average
2.5
GP at Line
21
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 27.3% | — | 11 |
| vs FAST pace | 27.3% | — | 11 |
| Rest: 1 | 30.0% | — | 10 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 17.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
15-15
Average
17.0
Median
17.5
Games Played
30
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 17.5
Over Rate
37.5%
Record
3-5
Average
17.1
GP at Line
8
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 17.5
DraftKings
O/U 15.5
DraftKings
O/U 16.5
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.