Points
39.0%
16-25 · 41 GP
NBA 2025–26
Stephen Curry
Golden State Warriors
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 39.0% (41 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Threes Made
39.0%
16-25 · 41 GP
Assists
39.0%
16-25 · 41 GP
Rebounds
37.5%
15-25 · 40 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
40.0%
16-24 · 40 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 27.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
39.0%
Record
16-25
Average
27.2
Median
27.0
Games Played
41
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 27.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
5-5
Average
29.1
GP at Line
10
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 27.5
DraftKings
O/U 28.5
DraftKings
O/U 25.5
DraftKings
O/U 26.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 50.0% | — | 8 |
| MID season | 42.9% | — | 7 |
| vs FAST pace | 42.9% | — | 7 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 4.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
39.0%
Record
16-25
Average
4.4
Median
4.0
Games Played
41
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 4.5
Over Rate
37.9%
Record
11-18
Average
4.6
GP at Line
29
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
FanDuel
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 31.6% | — | 19 |
| vs FAST pace | 25.0% | — | 16 |
| MID season | 25.0% | — | 16 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 4.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
39.0%
Record
16-25
Average
4.5
Median
4.0
Games Played
41
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 4.5
Over Rate
42.1%
Record
8-11
Average
4.3
GP at Line
19
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 41.7% | — | 12 |
| MID season | 54.5% | — | 11 |
| AWAY | 30.0% | — | 10 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
37.5%
Record
15-25
Average
3.6
Median
3.0
Games Played
40
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
42.9%
Record
9-12
Average
3.8
GP at Line
21
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 35.7% | — | 14 |
| MID season | 16.7% | — | 12 |
| vs FAST pace | 63.6% | — | 11 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 36.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
40.0%
Record
16-24
Average
35.3
Median
35.0
Games Played
40
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 36.5
Over Rate
55.6%
Record
5-4
Average
34.7
GP at Line
9
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 35.5
DraftKings
O/U 37.5
DraftKings
O/U 36.5
FanDuel
O/U 36.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 62.5% | — | 8 |
| MID season | 71.4% | — | 7 |
| HOME | 57.1% | — | 7 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.