Points
43.9%
25-32 · 57 GP
NBA 2025–26
T.J. McConnell
Indiana Pacers
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 43.9% (57 GP) · 4 qualified cards · No strong signal
Assists
54.4%
31-26 · 57 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
55.3%
21-17 · 38 GP
Rebounds
35.5%
11-20 · 31 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 8.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
43.9%
Record
25-32
Average
9.2
Median
8.0
Games Played
57
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 8.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
11-11
Average
9.7
GP at Line
22
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
DraftKings
O/U 9.5
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY | 58.3% | — | 12 |
| vs FAST pace | 50.0% | — | 12 |
| Rest: 1 | 54.5% | — | 11 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 4.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
54.4%
Record
31-26
Average
5.0
Median
4.0
Games Played
57
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 4.5
Over Rate
42.9%
Record
12-16
Average
4.3
GP at Line
28
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
FanDuel
O/U 4.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 41.2% | — | 17 |
| MID season | 40.0% | — | 15 |
| Rest: 1 | 28.6% | — | 14 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 15.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
55.3%
Record
21-17
Average
16.5
Median
16.0
Games Played
38
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 15.5
Over Rate
63.6%
Record
7-4
Average
14.9
GP at Line
11
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 15.5
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
DraftKings
O/U 16.5
DraftKings
O/U 18.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 71.4% | — | 7 |
| vs MID pace | 100.0% | — | 5 |
| MID season | 80.0% | — | 5 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
35.5%
Record
11-20
Average
2.3
Median
2.0
Games Played
31
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
40.9%
Record
9-13
Average
2.2
GP at Line
22
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 37.5% | — | 16 |
| vs FAST pace | 42.9% | — | 14 |
| MID season | 53.8% | — | 13 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.