Points
47.5%
38-42 · 80 GP
Threes Made
50.6%
40-39 · 79 GP
Rebounds
50.0%
39-39 · 78 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
48.1%
37-40 · 77 GP
Assists
43.8%
32-41 · 73 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 12.5
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 12.5
21 GP · 52% over
DraftKings
O/U 13.5
16 GP · 50% over
DraftKings
O/U 14.5
10 GP · 30% over
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
6 GP · 67% over
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
| vs FAST pace |
40.0% |
— |
15 |
| HOME |
53.3% |
— |
15 |
| Rest: 1 |
42.9% |
— |
14 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
45 GP · 51% over
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
13 GP · 62% over
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
12 GP · 50% over
DraftKings
O/U 0.5
3 GP · 67% over
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
| vs FAST pace |
46.9% |
— |
32 |
| HOME |
41.4% |
— |
29 |
| AWAY |
58.6% |
— |
29 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 5.5
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
38 GP · 47% over
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
17 GP · 53% over
FanDuel
O/U 5.5
9 GP · 56% over
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
4 GP · 25% over
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
| vs FAST pace |
57.1% |
— |
28 |
| AWAY |
54.2% |
— |
24 |
| HOME |
43.5% |
— |
23 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 20.5
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 20.5
17 GP · 41% over
DraftKings
O/U 22.5
13 GP · 39% over
DraftKings
O/U 19.5
10 GP · 80% over
DraftKings
O/U 21.5
9 GP · 44% over
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
| HOME |
42.9% |
— |
14 |
| vs FAST pace |
38.5% |
— |
13 |
| Rest: 1 |
33.3% |
— |
12 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
50 GP · 48% over
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
10 GP · 30% over
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
6 GP · 17% over
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
5 GP · 60% over
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
| vs FAST pace |
43.2% |
— |
37 |
| HOME |
50.0% |
— |
32 |
| Rest: 1 |
34.5% |
— |
29 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.
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