Points
54.1%
40-34 · 74 GP
NBA 2025–26
Trey Murphy III
New Orleans Pelicans
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 54.1% (74 GP) · 5 qualified cards · No strong signal
Threes Made
50.7%
37-36 · 73 GP
Assists
51.4%
36-34 · 70 GP
Rebounds
52.2%
36-33 · 69 GP
Pts+Reb+Ast
50.7%
35-34 · 69 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 20.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
54.1%
Record
40-34
Average
21.6
Median
21.0
Games Played
74
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 20.5
Over Rate
56.3%
Record
9-7
Average
21.1
GP at Line
16
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 20.5
DraftKings
O/U 19.5
DraftKings
O/U 21.5
DraftKings
O/U 17.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs FAST pace | 70.0% | — | 10 |
| Rest: 1 | 77.8% | — | 9 |
| HOME | 44.4% | — | 9 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
50.7%
Record
37-36
Average
3.2
Median
3.0
Games Played
73
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
47.2%
Record
17-19
Average
2.8
GP at Line
36
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
FanDuel
O/U 2.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| MID season | 36.4% | — | 22 |
| vs FAST pace | 45.5% | — | 22 |
| Rest: 1 | 54.5% | — | 22 |
Assists
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 3.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
51.4%
Record
36-34
Average
3.7
Median
4.0
Games Played
70
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 3.5
Over Rate
57.7%
Record
30-22
Average
3.6
GP at Line
52
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
FanDuel
O/U 3.5
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 68.8% | — | 32 |
| vs FAST pace | 53.3% | — | 30 |
| HOME | 53.6% | — | 28 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 5.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
52.2%
Record
36-33
Average
5.3
Median
5.0
Games Played
69
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 5.5
Over Rate
48.7%
Record
19-20
Average
5.8
GP at Line
39
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 5.5
DraftKings
O/U 4.5
FanDuel
O/U 4.5
DraftKings
O/U 6.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 44.0% | — | 25 |
| HOME | 43.5% | — | 23 |
| vs FAST pace | 45.5% | — | 22 |
Pts+Reb+Ast
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 31.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
50.7%
Record
35-34
Average
30.6
Median
31.0
Games Played
69
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 31.5
Over Rate
81.8%
Record
9-2
Average
32.0
GP at Line
11
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 30.5
DraftKings
O/U 31.5
DraftKings
O/U 28.5
DraftKings
O/U 27.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 87.5% | — | 8 |
| vs MID pace | 100.0% | — | 6 |
| AWAY | 83.3% | — | 6 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.