Points
45.9%
17-20 · 37 GP
NBA 2025–26
Ziaire Williams
Brooklyn Nets
No strong signal — Top market by sample: Points 45.9% (37 GP) · 3 qualified cards · No strong signal
Threes Made
40.6%
13-19 · 32 GP
Rebounds
44.0%
11-14 · 25 GP
Market Detail
3-layer model: market baseline → most common historical line → supporting context splits.
Points
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 8.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
45.9%
Record
17-20
Average
9.7
Median
9.0
Games Played
37
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 8.5
Over Rate
50.0%
Record
6-6
Average
9.4
GP at Line
12
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 8.5
DraftKings
O/U 10.5
DraftKings
O/U 11.5
DraftKings
O/U 7.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rest: 1 | 50.0% | — | 8 |
| vs FAST pace | 42.9% | — | 7 |
| AWAY | 50.0% | — | 6 |
Threes Made
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 1.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
feature
Over Rate
40.6%
Record
13-19
Average
1.4
Median
1.0
Games Played
32
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 1.5
Over Rate
42.9%
Record
12-16
Average
1.4
GP at Line
28
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 1.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOME | 46.7% | — | 15 |
| vs FAST pace | 38.5% | — | 13 |
| AWAY | 38.5% | — | 13 |
Rebounds
Most Common Historical Line: O/U 2.5
Baseline — All Games
MIXED
edge
Over Rate
44.0%
Record
11-14
Average
2.5
Median
2.0
Games Played
25
Most Common Historical Line
O/U 2.5
Over Rate
46.2%
Record
6-7
Average
2.6
GP at Line
13
Book Pricing History
DraftKings
O/U 2.5
DraftKings
O/U 3.5
Supporting Context
| Context | Over Rate | Record | GP |
|---|---|---|---|
| MID season | 44.4% | — | 9 |
| Rest: 1 | 62.5% | — | 8 |
| vs FAST pace | 57.1% | — | 7 |
Methodology
- Baseline: all games for this player × market, across all books and lines.
- Most common historical line: highest-GP line across all sportsbooks.
- Book context: hit rate per sportsbook × line combination.
- Supporting context: venue, pace tier, rest days, season phase splits at the most common historical line.
- Over rate: overs / (overs + unders), pushes excluded.
- Display floor: 10 GP minimum. Feature tier: 30+ GP. Hero: 65%+ or 35%- over rate.