NBA 2025–26

Denver Nuggets Betting Profile

Denver Nuggets games go over 66.7% on the road, averaging +5 points above the closing total.

Denver Nuggets

80 games

ATS43–35

O/U46–33

58.2% over the closing total

After a Loss

30 games

ATS18–12

O/U18–12

Denver Nuggets games go over 60% of the time after a loss

ATS · Home

17–19

47.2% against the spread

38 games

ATS · Away

26–16

61.9% against the spread

42 games

O/U · Home

18–19

48.6% over the closing total

38 games · avg +0.6 pts

O/U · Away

28–14

66.7% over the closing total

42 games · avg +5 pts

Strongest Plays

Over at home, 3+ days rest

75%

4 games · +19 vs close

Home cover on 2 days rest

66.7%

6 games

Over on the road

66.7%

42 games · +5 vs close

Home vs Away

Home (38 games)

PPG119.5

Opponent PPG115.3

Avg Total234.8

Close-Game Over %59.1%

Blowout Rate31.6%

Away (42 games)

PPG121.5

Opponent PPG117.3

Avg Total238.8

Over %66.7%

Cover %61.9%

Over rate is 18 points higher on the road (66.7% vs 48.6% at home).

Rest Splits (Home)

Rest	Games	Over %	vs Close	Cover %
Back-to-back	6	66.7%	+4	33.3%
1 day rest	22	38.1%	-2	45%
2 days rest	6	50%	-6	66.7%
3+ days rest	4	75%	+19	50%

Rest Splits (Away)

Rest	Games	Over %	vs Close	Cover %
Back-to-back	11	81.8%	+13.7	63.6%
1 day rest	22	63.6%	+3.4	54.5%
2 days rest	5	40%	-4.7	100%
3+ days rest	4	75%	+1.8	50%

Largest Over Beats (Home)

Date	Opponent	Score	Total	Line	vs Close
Dec 26	Minnesota	142-138	280	238.5	+41.5
Nov 29	San Antonio	136-139	275	238.5	+36.5
Mar 26	Mavericks	142-135	277	246.5	+30.5
Oct 5	Minnesota	116-126	242	218.5	+23.5
Dec 16	Rockets	128-125	253	236.5	+16.5

Opening vs Closing Lines

8 home games with opening and closing line data.

Date	Opponent	Open	Close	Move	Actual	vs Close	Result
Dec 26	Minnesota	238.5	238.5	+0	280	+41.5	OVER
Nov 29	San Antonio	238.5	238.5	+0	275	+36.5	OVER
Mar 26	Mavericks	244.5	246.5	+2	277	+30.5	OVER
Oct 5	Minnesota	218.5	218.5	+0	242	+23.5	OVER
Dec 16	Rockets	236.5	236.5	+0	253	+16.5	OVER
Dec 2	Mavericks	235.5	235.5	+0	252	+16.5	OVER
Nov 4	Kings	237.5	237.5	+0	254	+16.5	OVER
Mar 7	New York	232.5	229.5	-3	245	+15.5	OVER

Upcoming Schedule

6 games remaining.

Date	Matchup	Rest	Profile Signal
Jan 25	@ Grizzlies AWAY · B2B	B2B	Road over in profile
Mar 30	vs Golden State HOME	62 days	Standard
Apr 2	@ Jazz AWAY	2 days	Road over in profile
Apr 4	vs San Antonio HOME	2 days	Standard
Apr 7	vs Portland HOME	1 days	Standard
Apr 9	vs Grizzlies HOME	1 days	Standard

Recent Game Log

Date	Opponent	Score	Total	Line	vs Close	O/U
Mar 28	Jazz	135-129	264	—	—	N/A
Mar 26	Mavericks	142-135	277	246.5	+30.5	OVER
Mar 25	@ Suns	123-125	248	233.5	+14.5	OVER
Mar 22	Portland	128-112	240	240.5	-0.5	UNDER
Mar 21	Raptors	121-115	236	238.5	-2.5	UNDER
Mar 19	@ Grizzlies	125-118	243	246.5	-3.5	UNDER
Mar 18	76ers	124-96	220	235.5	-15.5	UNDER
Mar 15	@ LA Lakers	127-125	252	244.5	+7.5	OVER
Mar 13	@ San Antonio	131-136	267	241.5	+25.5	OVER
Mar 12	Rockets	129-93	222	232.5	-10.5	UNDER
Mar 9	@ OKC	129-126	255	237.5	+17.5	OVER
Mar 7	New York	103-142	245	229.5	+15.5	OVER
Mar 6	LA Lakers	120-113	233	240.5	-7.5	UNDER
Mar 3	@ Jazz	125-128	253	242.5	+10.5	OVER
Mar 1	Minnesota	108-117	225	240.5	-15.5	UNDER

Methodology

Data: 2025-26 NBA regular season through 2026-03-28 (80 games: 38 home, 42 away).
vs Close: actual combined score minus closing total. Games without a verified closing line are excluded from O/U percentages.
Close game: final margin ≤ 10 points.
O/U computed on 37 of 38 home games and 42 of 42 away games with verified lines.

For live intelligence, visit Ref Tendencies.