NBA 2025–26

Golden State Warriors Betting Profile

Games involving Golden State go over 61.5% at home and finish +5.4 points above the closing total. After a loss, totals go over 55% (22-18).

Golden State Warriors

79 games

ATS34–42

O/U46–33

58.2% over the closing total

After a Loss

40 games

ATS21–17

O/U22–18

Golden State Warriors games go over 55% of the time after a loss

ATS · Home

15–22

40.5% against the spread

39 games

ATS · Away

19–20

48.7% against the spread

40 games

O/U · Home

24–15

61.5% over the closing total

39 games · avg +5.4 pts

O/U · Away

22–18

55% over the closing total

40 games · avg -0.7 pts

Strongest Plays

Over at home, 2 days rest

72.7%

11 games · +5.6 vs close

Over in close home games

66.7%

18 games · margin ≤10

Over at home

61.5%

39 games · +5.4 vs close

Home vs Away

Home (39 games)

PPG117.8

Opponent PPG115.3

Avg Total233

Close-Game Over %66.7%

Blowout Rate30.8%

Away (40 games)

PPG112.7

Opponent PPG114.4

Avg Total227.1

Over %55%

Cover %48.7%

Rest Splits (Home)

Rest	Games	Over %	vs Close	Cover %
Back-to-back	4	50%	+3.8	25%
1 day rest	20	60%	+5.6	47.4%
2 days rest	11	72.7%	+5.6	40%
3+ days rest	4	50%	+5.3	25%

Rest Splits (Away)

Rest	Games	Over %	vs Close	Cover %
Back-to-back	10	60%	-0.2	60%
1 day rest	24	50%	-1.2	43.5%
2 days rest	3	66.7%	+4.2	66.7%
3+ days rest	3	66.7%	-3.5	33.3%

Largest Over Beats (Home)

Date	Opponent	Score	Total	Line	vs Close
Jan 21	Raptors	127-145	272	224.5	+47.5
Oct 24	Nuggets	137-131	268	232.5	+35.5
Oct 9	Portland	129-123	252	220.5	+31.5
Jan 31	Pistons	124-131	255	226.5	+28.5
Mar 28	Wizards	131-126	257	230	+27

Opening vs Closing Lines

8 home games with opening and closing line data.

Date	Opponent	Open	Close	Move	Actual	vs Close	Result
Jan 21	Raptors	224.5	224.5	+0	272	+47.5	OVER
Oct 24	Nuggets	232.5	232.5	+0	268	+35.5	OVER
Oct 9	Portland	220.5	220.5	+0	252	+31.5	OVER
Jan 31	Pistons	226.5	226.5	+0	255	+28.5	OVER
Mar 28	Wizards	234.5	230	-4.5	257	+27	OVER
Mar 11	Bulls	229.5	227.5	-2	254	+26.5	OVER
Mar 14	Minnesota	228.5	224.5	-4	244	+19.5	OVER
Feb 20	Celtics	211.5	211.5	+0	231	+19.5	OVER

Upcoming Schedule

6 games remaining.

Date	Matchup	Rest	Profile Signal
Jan 24	@ Minnesota AWAY · B2B	B2B	No edge
Mar 30	@ Nuggets AWAY	63 days	No edge
Apr 2	vs San Antonio HOME	2 days	Home over in profile
Apr 3	vs Cavaliers HOME · B2B	B2B	Home over in profile
Apr 6	vs Rockets HOME	2 days	Home over in profile
Apr 8	vs Kings HOME	1 days	Home over in profile

Recent Game Log

Date	Opponent	Score	Total	Line	vs Close	O/U
Mar 28	Wizards	131-126	257	230	+27	OVER
Mar 26	Nets	109-106	215	217.5	-2.5	UNDER
Mar 24	@ Mavericks	131-137	268	230.5	+37.5	OVER
Mar 22	@ Hawks	126-110	236	237.5	-1.5	UNDER
Mar 20	@ Pistons	115-101	216	218.5	-2.5	UNDER
Mar 18	@ Celtics	120-99	219	216.5	+2.5	OVER
Mar 16	@ Wizards	117-125	242	234.5	+7.5	OVER
Mar 16	@ New York	110-107	217	218.5	-1.5	UNDER
Mar 14	Minnesota	117-127	244	224.5	+19.5	OVER
Mar 11	Bulls	124-130	254	227.5	+26.5	OVER
Mar 10	@ Jazz	119-116	235	224.5	+10.5	OVER
Mar 8	@ OKC	104-97	201	219.5	-18.5	UNDER
Mar 6	@ Rockets	113-115	228	214.5	+13.5	OVER
Mar 3	Clippers	101-114	215	216.5	-1.5	UNDER
Mar 1	LA Lakers	101-129	230	225.5	+4.5	OVER

Methodology

Data: 2025-26 NBA regular season through 2026-03-28 (79 games: 39 home, 40 away).
vs Close: actual combined score minus closing total. Games without a verified closing line are excluded from O/U percentages.
Close game: final margin ≤ 10 points.
O/U computed on 39 of 39 home games and 40 of 40 away games with verified lines.

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