NBA 2025–26

Los Angeles Lakers Betting Profile

Games involving Los Angeles go over 59% at home and finish +1.5 points above the closing total. After a loss, totals go over 61.3% (19-12).

Los Angeles Lakers

78 games

ATS39–37

O/U40–38

51.3% over the closing total

After a Loss

31 games

ATS17–14

O/U19–12

Los Angeles Lakers games go over 61.3% of the time after a loss

ATS · Home

20–18

52.6% against the spread

39 games

ATS · Away

19–19

50% against the spread

39 games

O/U · Home

23–16

59% over the closing total

39 games · avg +1.5 pts

O/U · Away

17–22

43.6% over the closing total

39 games · avg -1.7 pts

Strongest Plays

Over at home, 2 days rest

80%

5 games · +11.1 vs close

Home cover on 2 days rest

80%

5 games

Over in close home games

66.7%

15 games · margin ≤10

Home vs Away

Home (39 games)

PPG117.1

Opponent PPG115.3

Avg Total232.5

Close-Game Over %66.7%

Blowout Rate41%

Away (39 games)

PPG114.2

Opponent PPG114.5

Avg Total228.7

Over %43.6%

Cover %50%

Over rate drops 15 points on the road (59% → 43.6%). This is a home-only play.

Rest Splits (Home)

Rest	Games	Over %	vs Close	Cover %
Back-to-back	8	62.5%	+2.6	50%
1 day rest	21	47.6%	-1.4	55%
2 days rest	5	80%	+11.1	80%
3+ days rest	5	80%	+2.5	20%

Rest Splits (Away)

Rest	Games	Over %	vs Close	Cover %
Back-to-back	5	60%	-3.9	60%
1 day rest	26	38.5%	-1.7	52%
2 days rest	4	75%	+7	25%
3+ days rest	4	25%	-7.5	50%

Largest Over Beats (Home)

Date	Opponent	Score	Total	Line	vs Close
Mar 13	Bulls	142-130	272	240.5	+31.5
Dec 1	New Orleans	133-121	254	228.5	+25.5
Nov 26	Clippers	135-118	253	227.5	+25.5
Nov 19	Jazz	140-126	266	240.5	+25.5
Jan 14	Hawks	141-116	257	233.5	+23.5

Opening vs Closing Lines

8 home games with opening and closing line data.

Date	Opponent	Open	Close	Move	Actual	vs Close	Result
Mar 13	Bulls	232.5	240.5	+8	272	+31.5	OVER
Dec 1	New Orleans	228.5	228.5	+0	254	+25.5	OVER
Nov 26	Clippers	227.5	227.5	+0	253	+25.5	OVER
Nov 19	Jazz	240.5	240.5	+0	266	+25.5	OVER
Jan 14	Hawks	233.5	233.5	+0	257	+23.5	OVER
Oct 13	Golden State	220.5	220.5	+0	242	+21.5	OVER
Feb 21	Clippers	228.5	228.5	+0	247	+18.5	OVER
Jan 16	Hornets	233.5	233.5	+0	252	+18.5	OVER

Upcoming Schedule

6 games remaining.

Date	Matchup	Rest	Profile Signal
Dec 8	@ 76ers AWAY · B2B	B2B	No edge
Jan 5	vs Grizzlies HOME	27 days	Standard
Mar 31	vs Wizards HOME	84 days	Standard
Apr 1	vs Cavaliers HOME · B2B	B2B	Standard
Apr 3	@ OKC AWAY	1 days	No edge
Apr 5	@ Mavericks AWAY	2 days	No edge

Recent Game Log

Date	Opponent	Score	Total	Line	vs Close	O/U
Mar 28	Nets	116-99	215	225.5	-10.5	UNDER
Mar 25	@ Pacers	130-137	267	241.5	+25.5	OVER
Mar 23	@ Pistons	113-110	223	225.5	-2.5	UNDER
Mar 21	@ Magic	104-105	209	232.5	-23.5	UNDER
Mar 20	@ Heat	126-134	260	242.5	+17.5	OVER
Mar 19	@ Rockets	116-124	240	223.5	+16.5	OVER
Mar 17	@ Rockets	92-100	192	223.5	-31.5	UNDER
Mar 15	Nuggets	127-125	252	244.5	+7.5	OVER
Mar 13	Bulls	142-130	272	240.5	+31.5	OVER
Mar 11	Minnesota	120-106	226	229.5	-3.5	UNDER
Mar 8	New York	110-97	207	226.5	-19.5	UNDER
Mar 7	Pacers	128-117	245	235.5	+9.5	OVER
Mar 6	@ Nuggets	120-113	233	240.5	-7.5	UNDER
Mar 4	New Orleans	110-101	211	242.5	-31.5	UNDER
Mar 2	Kings	128-104	232	235.5	-3.5	UNDER

Methodology

Data: 2025-26 NBA regular season through 2026-03-28 (78 games: 39 home, 39 away).
vs Close: actual combined score minus closing total. Games without a verified closing line are excluded from O/U percentages.
Close game: final margin ≤ 10 points.
O/U computed on 39 of 39 home games and 39 of 39 away games with verified lines.

For live intelligence, visit Ref Tendencies.