NBA 2025–26

Miami Heat Betting Profile

Games involving Miami go over 56.1% at home and finish +3.9 points above the closing total. After a loss, Miami Heat cover 61.5% (24-15).

Miami Heat

80 games

ATS43–35

O/U43–36

55.1% against the spread

After a Loss

40 games

ATS24–15

O/U20–20

Miami Heat cover 61.5% of the time after a loss

ATS · Home

21–19

52.5% against the spread

41 games

ATS · Away

22–16

57.9% against the spread

39 games

O/U · Home

23–18

56.1% over the closing total

41 games · avg +3.9 pts

O/U · Away

20–18

52.6% over the closing total

39 games · avg -0.4 pts

Strongest Plays

Over at home, 3+ days rest

66.7%

3 games · +11.8 vs close

Home cover on back-to-back

62.5%

8 games

Cover after a loss

61.5%

40 games

Home vs Away

Home (41 games)

PPG121

Opponent PPG117.6

Avg Total238.6

Close-Game Over %50%

Blowout Rate36.6%

Away (39 games)

PPG118.1

Opponent PPG118.2

Avg Total236.2

Over %52.6%

Cover %57.9%

Rest Splits (Home)

Rest	Games	Over %	vs Close	Cover %
Back-to-back	8	37.5%	-0.3	62.5%
1 day rest	26	61.5%	+3.3	56%
2 days rest	4	50%	+9.5	50%
3+ days rest	3	66.7%	+11.8	0%

Rest Splits (Away)

Rest	Games	Over %	vs Close	Cover %
Back-to-back	8	75%	+5	75%
1 day rest	19	50%	-0.4	55.6%
2 days rest	8	37.5%	-6.4	50%
3+ days rest	4	50%	+1	50%

Largest Over Beats (Home)

Date	Opponent	Score	Total	Line	vs Close
Mar 10	Wizards	150-129	279	235.5	+43.5
Nov 30	Pistons	135-138	273	239.5	+33.5
Oct 18	Grizzlies	125-141	266	232.5	+33.5
Oct 5	Magic	118-126	244	210.5	+33.5
Nov 11	Cavaliers	140-138	278	248.5	+29.5

Opening vs Closing Lines

8 home games with opening and closing line data.

Date	Opponent	Open	Close	Move	Actual	vs Close	Result
Mar 10	Wizards	241.5	235.5	-6	279	+43.5	OVER
Nov 30	Pistons	239.5	239.5	+0	273	+33.5	OVER
Oct 18	Grizzlies	232.5	232.5	+0	266	+33.5	OVER
Oct 5	Magic	210.5	210.5	+0	244	+33.5	OVER
Nov 11	Cavaliers	248.5	248.5	+0	278	+29.5	OVER
Dec 2	Clippers	235.5	235.5	+0	263	+27.5	OVER
Dec 30	Nuggets	244.5	244.5	+0	270	+25.5	OVER
Nov 9	Portland	241.5	241.5	+0	267	+25.5	OVER

Upcoming Schedule

6 games remaining.

Date	Matchup	Rest	Profile Signal
Jan 9	@ Bulls AWAY · B2B	B2B	Road cover in profile
Mar 29	@ Pacers AWAY	79 days	Road cover in profile
Mar 30	vs 76ers HOME · B2B	B2B	Standard
Apr 1	vs Celtics HOME	1 days	Standard
Apr 4	vs Wizards HOME	2 days	Standard
Apr 7	@ Raptors AWAY	2 days	Road cover in profile

Recent Game Log

Date	Opponent	Score	Total	Line	vs Close	O/U
Mar 27	@ Cavaliers	149-128	277	—	—	N/A
Mar 25	@ Cavaliers	103-120	223	243.5	-20.5	UNDER
Mar 23	San Antonio	111-136	247	244.5	+2.5	OVER
Mar 22	@ Rockets	123-122	245	245.5	-0.5	UNDER
Mar 20	LA Lakers	126-134	260	242.5	+17.5	OVER
Mar 17	@ Hornets	136-106	242	236.5	+5.5	OVER
Mar 15	Magic	117-121	238	236.5	+1.5	OVER
Mar 12	Bucks	112-105	217	233.5	-16.5	UNDER
Mar 10	Wizards	150-129	279	235.5	+43.5	OVER
Mar 8	Pistons	121-110	231	230.5	+0.5	OVER
Mar 7	@ Hornets	120-128	248	229.5	+18.5	OVER
Mar 6	Nets	126-110	236	225.5	+10.5	OVER
Mar 4	Nets	124-98	222	225.5	-3.5	UNDER
Feb 28	Rockets	115-105	220	226.5	-6.5	UNDER
Feb 27	@ 76ers	124-117	241	240.5	+0.5	OVER

Methodology

Data: 2025-26 NBA regular season through 2026-03-27 (80 games: 41 home, 39 away).
vs Close: actual combined score minus closing total. Games without a verified closing line are excluded from O/U percentages.
Close game: final margin ≤ 10 points.
O/U computed on 41 of 41 home games and 38 of 39 away games with verified lines.

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