Milwaukee Bucks
76 games
ATS34–41
O/U34–42
44.7% over the closing total
NBA 2025–26
Milwaukee Bucks Betting Profile
Games involving Milwaukee go over 55.3% at home and finish +5.6 points above the closing total.
After a Loss
44 games
ATS20–23
O/U17–27
44 games after a straight-up loss this season
ATS · Home
18–19
48.6% against the spread
38 games
ATS · Away
16–22
42.1% against the spread
38 games
O/U · Home
21–17
55.3% over the closing total
38 games · avg +5.6 pts
O/U · Away
13–25
34.2% over the closing total
38 games · avg -4.5 pts
Strongest Plays
1
Home cover on 2 days rest
75%
5 games
2
Over in close home games
62.5%
16 games · margin ≤10
3
Over at home, 1 day rest
60.9%
23 games · +6.6 vs close
Home vs Away
Home (38 games)
PPG113.6
Opponent PPG118.2
Avg Total231.8
Close-Game Over %62.5%
Blowout Rate39.5%
Away (38 games)
PPG107.5
Opponent PPG115.1
Avg Total222.6
Over %34.2%
Cover %42.1%
Over rate drops 21 points on the road (55.3% → 34.2%). This is a home-only play.
Rest Splits (Home)
| Rest | Games | Over % | vs Close | Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back-to-back | 7 | 57.1% | +7.9 | 57.1% |
| 1 day rest | 23 | 60.9% | +6.6 | 39.1% |
| 2 days rest | 5 | 40% | -1.8 | 75% |
| 3+ days rest | 3 | 33.3% | +5.5 | 66.7% |
Rest Splits (Away)
| Rest | Games | Over % | vs Close | Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back-to-back | 5 | 40% | -5.1 | 60% |
| 1 day rest | 22 | 27.3% | -6.1 | 36.4% |
| 2 days rest | 6 | 33.3% | -8.8 | 33.3% |
| 3+ days rest | 5 | 60% | +8.5 | 60% |
Largest Over Beats (Home)
| Date | Opponent | Score | Total | Line | vs Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5 | New Orleans | 141-137 | 278 | 223.5 | +54.5 |
| Nov 15 | Hornets | 147-134 | 281 | 238.5 | +42.5 |
| Nov 1 | Kings | 133-135 | 268 | 232.5 | +35.5 |
| Mar 15 | Pacers | 134-123 | 257 | 227.5 | +29.5 |
| Oct 23 | Wizards | 133-120 | 253 | 228.5 | +24.5 |
Opening vs Closing Lines
8 home games with opening and closing line data.
| Date | Opponent | Open | Close | Move | Actual | vs Close | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5 | New Orleans | 223.5 | 223.5 | +0 | 278 | +54.5 | OVER |
| Nov 15 | Hornets | 238.5 | 238.5 | +0 | 281 | +42.5 | OVER |
| Nov 1 | Kings | 232.5 | 232.5 | +0 | 268 | +35.5 | OVER |
| Mar 15 | Pacers | 228.5 | 227.5 | -1 | 257 | +29.5 | OVER |
| Oct 23 | Wizards | 228.5 | 228.5 | +0 | 253 | +24.5 | OVER |
| Mar 11 | Suns | 218.5 | 219.5 | +1 | 243 | +23.5 | OVER |
| Feb 4 | Bulls | 222.5 | 222.5 | +0 | 246 | +23.5 | OVER |
| Nov 23 | Pistons | 225.5 | 225.5 | +0 | 245 | +19.5 | OVER |
Upcoming Schedule
6 games remaining.
| Date | Matchup | Rest | Profile Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5 | @ Kings AWAY · B2B |
B2B | No edge |
| Jan 26 | vs Mavericks HOME |
20 days | Standard |
| Mar 29 | vs Clippers HOME |
62 days | Standard |
| Apr 1 | vs Mavericks HOME |
1 days | Standard |
| Apr 2 | @ Rockets AWAY · B2B |
B2B | No edge |
| Apr 4 | vs Celtics HOME |
1 days | Standard |
Recent Game Log
| Date | Opponent | Score | Total | Line | vs Close | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28 | San Antonio | 95-127 | 222 | 227 | -5 | UNDER |
| Mar 26 | @ Portland | 130-99 | 229 | 226.5 | +2.5 | OVER |
| Mar 24 | @ Clippers | 129-96 | 225 | 221.5 | +3.5 | OVER |
| Mar 22 | @ Suns | 105-108 | 213 | 218.5 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| Mar 20 | @ Jazz | 128-96 | 224 | 227.5 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| Mar 18 | Cavaliers | 116-123 | 239 | 226.5 | +12.5 | OVER |
| Mar 15 | Pacers | 134-123 | 257 | 227.5 | +29.5 | OVER |
| Mar 14 | @ Hawks | 122-99 | 221 | 228.5 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| Mar 12 | @ Heat | 112-105 | 217 | 233.5 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| Mar 11 | Suns | 114-129 | 243 | 219.5 | +23.5 | OVER |
| Mar 9 | Magic | 91-130 | 221 | 216.5 | +4.5 | OVER |
| Mar 8 | Jazz | 113-99 | 212 | 230.5 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| Mar 5 | Hawks | 113-131 | 244 | 232.5 | +11.5 | OVER |
| Mar 3 | Celtics | 81-108 | 189 | 216.5 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| Mar 1 | @ Bulls | 120-97 | 217 | 231.5 | -14.5 | UNDER |
Methodology
- Data: 2025-26 NBA regular season through 2026-03-28 (76 games: 38 home, 38 away).
- vs Close: actual combined score minus closing total. Games without a verified closing line are excluded from O/U percentages.
- Close game: final margin ≤ 10 points.
- O/U computed on 38 of 38 home games and 38 of 38 away games with verified lines.
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