NBA 2025–26

Portland Trail Blazers Betting Profile

Games involving Portland go over 64.1% at home and finish +2.8 points above the closing total. After a loss, totals go over 60% (24-16).

Portland Trail Blazers

79 games

ATS39–37

O/U43–36

54.4% over the closing total

After a Loss

40 games

ATS21–18

O/U24–16

Portland Trail Blazers games go over 60% of the time after a loss

ATS · Home

21–16

56.8% against the spread

39 games

ATS · Away

18–21

46.2% against the spread

40 games

O/U · Home

25–14

64.1% over the closing total

39 games · avg +2.8 pts

O/U · Away

18–22

45% over the closing total

40 games · avg -4.3 pts

Strongest Plays

Over at home, 3+ days rest

83.3%

6 games · +9.3 vs close

Home cover on 1 day rest

66.7%

22 games

Over at home

64.1%

39 games · +2.8 vs close

Home vs Away

Home (39 games)

PPG118.1

Opponent PPG116.6

Avg Total234.6

Close-Game Over %56.5%

Blowout Rate35.9%

Away (40 games)

PPG110.7

Opponent PPG117.4

Avg Total228.1

Over %45%

Cover %46.2%

Over rate drops 19 points on the road (64.1% → 45%). This is a home-only play.

Rest Splits (Home)

Rest	Games	Over %	vs Close	Cover %
Back-to-back	6	50%	+0	40%
1 day rest	22	59.1%	+0	66.7%
2 days rest	5	80%	+10.9	40%
3+ days rest	6	83.3%	+9.3	50%

Rest Splits (Away)

Rest	Games	Over %	vs Close	Cover %
Back-to-back	9	33.3%	-3.9	77.8%
1 day rest	25	40%	-7.6	37.5%
2 days rest	4	75%	+0.8	25%
3+ days rest	2	100%	+26	50%

Largest Over Beats (Home)

Date	Opponent	Score	Total	Line	vs Close
Feb 4	Suns	125-130	255	218.5	+36.5
Dec 15	Golden State	136-131	267	237.5	+29.5
Oct 25	Golden State	139-119	258	228.5	+29.5
Dec 19	Kings	134-133	267	238.5	+28.5
Jan 18	LA Lakers	132-116	248	223.5	+24.5

Opening vs Closing Lines

8 home games with opening and closing line data.

Date	Opponent	Open	Close	Move	Actual	vs Close	Result
Feb 4	Suns	218.5	218.5	+0	255	+36.5	OVER
Dec 15	Golden State	237.5	237.5	+0	267	+29.5	OVER
Oct 25	Golden State	228.5	228.5	+0	258	+29.5	OVER
Dec 19	Kings	238.5	238.5	+0	267	+28.5	OVER
Jan 18	LA Lakers	223.5	223.5	+0	248	+24.5	OVER
Feb 10	76ers	231.5	231.5	+0	253	+21.5	OVER
Feb 21	Nuggets	241.5	241.5	+0	260	+18.5	OVER
Feb 7	Grizzlies	232.5	232.5	+0	250	+17.5	OVER

Upcoming Schedule

5 games remaining.

Date	Matchup	Rest	Profile Signal
Mar 29	vs Wizards HOME	1 days	Home over in profile
Apr 1	@ Clippers AWAY	1 days	No edge
Apr 3	vs New Orleans HOME	1 days	Home over in profile
Apr 7	@ Nuggets AWAY	3 days	No edge
Apr 9	@ San Antonio AWAY	1 days	No edge

Recent Game Log

Date	Opponent	Score	Total	Line	vs Close	O/U
Mar 28	Mavericks	93-100	193	240	-47	UNDER
Mar 26	Bucks	130-99	229	226.5	+2.5	OVER
Mar 24	Nets	134-99	233	218.5	+14.5	OVER
Mar 22	@ Nuggets	128-112	240	240.5	-0.5	UNDER
Mar 21	@ Minnesota	104-108	212	231.5	-19.5	UNDER
Mar 18	@ Pacers	119-127	246	233.5	+12.5	OVER
Mar 16	@ Nets	95-114	209	221.5	-12.5	UNDER
Mar 15	@ 76ers	109-103	212	228.5	-16.5	UNDER
Mar 14	Jazz	124-114	238	235.5	+2.5	OVER
Mar 11	Hornets	101-103	204	227.5	-23.5	UNDER
Mar 9	Pacers	131-111	242	238.5	+3.5	OVER
Mar 7	@ Rockets	106-99	205	220.5	-15.5	UNDER
Mar 5	@ Grizzlies	114-122	236	231.5	+4.5	OVER
Mar 1	@ Hawks	135-101	236	235.5	+0.5	OVER
Feb 28	@ Hornets	109-93	202	228.5	-26.5	UNDER

Methodology

Data: 2025-26 NBA regular season through 2026-03-28 (79 games: 39 home, 40 away).
vs Close: actual combined score minus closing total. Games without a verified closing line are excluded from O/U percentages.
Close game: final margin ≤ 10 points.
O/U computed on 39 of 39 home games and 40 of 40 away games with verified lines.

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